Italy haven't won in seven games and only managed a draw with Luxembourg, the world's 120th best team, in their final World Cup warm-up match. Now that's probably not something to be reading a great deal in to, but you'd rather that than them being on fire, right?
A leg injury picked up yesterday by their first choice right-back Mattia De Sciglio hasn't helped either, and Cesare Prandelli has until 23:00 tonight to decide whether or not to replace him with Andrea Ranocchia. No injury concerns for them other than that. Marco Verratti was looking doubtful for a while, but should be fine. England are in decent shape too, no Oxlade-Chamberlain until Uruguay but Danny Welbeck has shaken off a thigh injury and will probably start.
Did anyone else expect England to be super-long odds for the win? Turns out we're not as useless as you might have thought. Italy are still favourites (13/8) but we're not far behind them at 2/1, and the draw's on at the same price. Both sides tend to start slowly at major tournaments so it might have to be that. Or, the score draw at 19/5, even better.
Wayne Rooney's a decent 7/4 (anytime) to score his first World Cup goal but Sturridge looks more likely to me, and at 2/1 is a touch longer too. Lambert's tempting as well at 3/1 but it all depends how much game-time he gets really. If he ends up starting, get on it! For Italy it'll have to be Balotelli to get the first at 9/2.
Prediction: 1-1 (11/2)
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